Algeria Hemmed In by Sahel Instability and French Strain

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Algeria Hemmed In by Sahel Instability and French Strain

In recent months, Algeria has found itself navigating a treacherous diplomatic minefield, grappling simultaneously with heightened tensions along its southern border with Mali and a renewed frostiness in its long-complicated relationship with France. These parallel tensions reflect not isolated grievances, but a broader struggle over Algeria’s place in a changing regional and international order. At the heart of both fronts lies Algeria’s enduring sense of sovereignty, historical memory, and its deep suspicion of foreign interference—a mindset that is now being tested by rapidly shifting dynamics across the Sahel and within Europe.

The Algeria-Mali confrontation erupted into the open following the downing of a Malian drone in early April 2025 near the Algerian border, prompting Algiers to shut its airspace to all Malian flights. This dramatic move was a response not merely to an airspace violation, but to what Algerian officials view as a series of calculated provocations by Mali’s ruling junta. The deterioration in relations traces back to Mali’s decision to withdraw from the 2015 Algiers Peace Accord, a landmark agreement brokered by Algeria to end years of Tuareg insurgency in northern Mali. Algiers regards the accord as both a diplomatic investment and a geopolitical lever—one that gave it influence over Mali’s north and served its interest in keeping jihadist and separatist movements in check across the wider Sahara.

From Mali’s perspective, however, Algeria’s role is no longer welcome. The military government in Bamako, emboldened by its alliance with Russia and increasingly assertive after breaking from the regional bloc ECOWAS, views Algeria’s mediation as outdated and one-sided. Mali accuses Algiers of harboring sympathy for Tuareg separatists, a claim Algeria rejects but which reflects a deeper breakdown of trust. The Malian junta’s turn toward a security-first policy, reliant on force and foreign military partners, contrasts sharply with Algeria’s preference for negotiated settlements and cautious diplomacy.

Algeria’s sense of encirclement is sharpened by the erosion of ECOWAS itself. The withdrawal of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger from the bloc has fragmented regional cooperation and left Algeria facing a zone of instability just across its southern border. This uncertainty is compounded by Algeria’s growing anxiety about foreign military presences in the Sahel—particularly that of Russia via the Wagner-linked contingents in Mali. While Algeria maintains pragmatic ties with Moscow, the growing unpredictability of Russia’s African partners and their rejection of Algerian-led diplomacy poses new strategic headaches.

At the same time, Algeria’s tensions with France remain unresolved, revealing the lingering trauma of colonial history and diverging geopolitical interests. Relations with Paris took a sharp dive in late 2021 when French President Emmanuel Macron questioned whether there had ever been an Algerian nation prior to French colonization, triggering a storm of official outrage in Algiers. While both countries attempted a diplomatic reset in 2022 and 2023, the rapprochement has been tepid at best.

In 2024, a new wave of friction emerged after France sharply criticized Algeria’s human rights record, particularly regarding the repression of journalists and political activists. Algiers, in turn, accused France of neocolonial attitudes and political meddling. The relationship has since been characterized by mutual distrust, punctuated by moments of symbolic diplomacy but devoid of genuine strategic alignment.

What complicates matters further is the role of Algeria’s large diaspora in France, which plays into both domestic politics and bilateral relations. With far-right sentiment on the rise in French politics and increasing securitization of immigration policy, Algerian officials are wary of what they see as France’s instrumentalization of the Algerian community. This tension over identity, migration, and memory spills over into broader diplomatic dialogue, often derailing efforts at policy coordination, especially on security and counterterrorism cooperation.

Both France and Mali represent, in different ways, challenges to Algeria’s vision of its regional and historical role. With Mali, the challenge is geopolitical and immediate—about influence in the Sahel, the management of rebel groups, and border security. With France, the challenge is symbolic and historical—about dignity, recognition, and post-colonial sovereignty. In both arenas, Algeria is acting from a defensive posture, seeking to assert itself while fending off what it perceives as threats to its autonomy. Algeria’s diplomacy, shaped by its revolutionary heritage and preference for non-interference, is now being tested by a new era marked by fragmented alliances and unstable borders. As it confronts a militarized southern neighbor and a skeptical former colonizer, Algiers must decide whether to double down on its traditional instincts or adapt to a region and world that are rapidly leaving old assumptions behind. The outcome of this balancing act will define not just Algeria’s foreign policy, but the broader geopolitical landscape of North and West Africa in the years ahead.

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