In what seems to be an unsettling reversal of Nigeria’s counterterrorism efforts, Boko Haram is reportedly making significant gains once again in Borno State, the region that has borne the brunt of the group’s insurgency for over a decade. The warning came from none other than Governor Babagana Zulum, who painted a worrying picture of renewed attacks, territorial advances, and mounting civilian casualties in recent weeks.
Zulum, who has long positioned himself as a hands-on governor with firsthand exposure to the frontline of the conflict, revealed that Boko Haram fighters—and their more recent splinter group, the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP)—are exploiting gaps left by weakened or absent military presence in key parts of the state. “They are regaining strength,” he said during a high-level security briefing, pointing out that some communities once deemed relatively safe are now under renewed threat.
According to the governor, this resurgence is not merely a case of isolated skirmishes. Boko Haram and ISWAP have been mounting coordinated offensives, ambushing military convoys, and targeting civilians with kidnappings and extortion. Displaced persons camps have reportedly seen a spike in new arrivals as villagers flee the violence. In some locations, militants are even establishing parallel forms of governance—imposing taxes, adjudicating disputes, and doling out rough justice to maintain control over captured territories.
The governor’s comments strike a sharp contrast to the official narrative that has dominated public discourse in recent years: that Boko Haram had been significantly weakened and driven into remote hideouts. Indeed, Nigeria’s federal government has often touted its progress in the war on terror, highlighting the deaths of key insurgent leaders, the defection of thousands of fighters, and a reduction in the frequency of major attacks on urban centers.
But Zulum’s stark assessment suggests that while the center may have held, the peripheries have slipped. Several local governments in northern Borno, particularly those near Lake Chad and along the porous borders with Niger and Cameroon, have become flashpoints once again. And the timing is critical. With Niger pulling out of the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF)—a regional coalition set up to combat insurgents across national lines—Nigeria’s eastern flank has become even more exposed.
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This renewed offensive also lays bare long-standing structural weaknesses in Nigeria’s security apparatus. Despite heavy military deployments, security forces remain underfunded, overstretched, and in some cases, outmaneuvered. Counterinsurgency efforts have also been hampered by poor intelligence coordination, inadequate equipment, and inconsistent morale among troops. Many analysts argue that while military action remains essential, it cannot be a substitute for deeper political and socioeconomic engagement in a region scarred by poverty, unemployment, and state neglect.
Governor Zulum, known for his outspoken stance on national security, called for more sophisticated responses—including the deployment of advanced surveillance technology, drones, and satellite imagery—to detect militant movements and prevent attacks before they happen. “The era of conventional warfare is over,” he said. “We need intelligence-driven operations that use technology as our frontline.”
Yet for all the urgency, policy responses appear to lag behind the pace of insurgent gains. The governor’s plea may increase pressure on Abuja to revisit its strategy and redouble its commitment to long-term stabilization in the Northeast. There is growing concern that without a decisive shift, Nigeria risks sliding back into a prolonged stalemate—where gains are made in one quarter, only to be lost in another.
For communities caught in the crossfire, the recent wave of violence has revived painful memories. Residents in areas like Kukawa, Marte, and Guzamala have reportedly started fleeing once more, some of them for the second or third time in the past decade. “We were just beginning to rebuild,” said one displaced villager reached by phone. “Now it’s happening again. We don’t know where is safe anymore.”
The humanitarian fallout is already evident. Relief agencies warn of new pressures on internally displaced persons (IDP) camps, many of which are already stretched thin. Food insecurity, a persistent challenge in the region, is expected to worsen as farmlands become inaccessible and aid deliveries are disrupted.
As Nigeria gears up for its next budget cycle, the renewed insecurity in Borno could become a test of political will. Will the federal government heed the alarm bells rung by one of its most exposed governors? Or will bureaucratic inertia and political distractions allow Boko Haram’s second wind to gather strength?
For the people of Borno, the answer could mean the difference between rebuilding a life and watching it crumble—again. And for Nigeria, the specter of Boko Haram’s return is not just a blow to its security credentials, but a sobering reminder that the war may not be over after all.
