In a week marked by diplomatic warmth and geopolitical concern, Ethiopia found itself walking a tightrope between regional cooperation and simmering cross-border tensions. While Addis Ababa welcomed Ugandan officials to solidify bilateral relations with a suite of new agreements, whispers of unrest flared once again from the north, as leaders in the Tigray region warned of renewed tensions with neighboring Eritrea.
From April 1 to 3, 2025, Ethiopia hosted the fourth session of the Ethiopia-Uganda Joint Ministerial Commission (JMC) in Addis Ababa. The event culminated in the signing of eight cooperative agreements spanning aviation, energy, agriculture, trade, culture, and water resource management. Senior government representatives from both nations described the agreements as a critical step toward stronger political and economic integration between the Horn of Africa and the Great Lakes region. Ethiopia’s Foreign Minister, Taye Atske Selassie, emphasized that the shared vision for regional development must be rooted in practical partnerships. “The spirit of Pan-Africanism is not just about sentiment—it’s about connecting our economies, exchanging knowledge, and sharing resources,” he stated at the closing ceremony.
The bilateral momentum has been particularly strong in infrastructure and logistics, with discussions pointing to possible joint ventures in airline operations and road connectivity. Uganda, a landlocked country much like Ethiopia, is looking toward diversified trade routes, while Ethiopia, fresh from restarting construction on its Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia Transport (LAPSSET) corridor involvement, is seeking broader East African economic inclusion. The aviation agreement, in particular, raised interest, given Ethiopian Airlines’ regional dominance and Uganda’s ongoing efforts to make Uganda Airlines more competitive.
Amid this atmosphere of optimism, however, a colder wind blew from the north. Leaders from Ethiopia’s Tigray region issued stark warnings about the growing presence and intentions of Eritrean forces near the shared border. Speaking during a regional council meeting in Mekelle, senior officials alleged that Eritrean troops have not fully withdrawn from Tigrayan territory following the November 2022 Pretoria peace deal, which formally ended two years of brutal civil conflict. They described the current dynamic as a “silent occupation” and expressed concerns that hostilities could erupt again if left unaddressed.
General Tadesse Werede, head of the Tigray Defense Forces, told reporters that Eritrean troops remain stationed in key border areas and have engaged in sporadic skirmishes with local militias. “We are witnessing a dangerous pattern. The Eritrean regime is not simply watching; it is planning,” he said, urging the federal government in Addis Ababa to take a firmer stance.
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The federal response has so far been diplomatic but cautious. A spokesperson for the Ethiopian government acknowledged concerns about the situation but stopped short of accusing Eritrea of violating the Pretoria deal. “We are monitoring developments closely and remain committed to peace and regional stability,” the statement read.
The potential for renewed conflict between Eritrea and Tigray poses a thorny challenge for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government, which is simultaneously pursuing international investment, regional integration, and post-war reconstruction. A fresh eruption of violence could unravel recent gains, particularly in infrastructure and foreign diplomacy—both of which were on full display during the Uganda JMC meetings.
The juxtaposition of the two developments highlights Ethiopia’s unique position as both a regional unifier and a country still grappling with internal fissures and external hostilities. While Addis Ababa was the stage for smiles, handshakes, and vision statements with Ugandan counterparts, the Tigray leadership was issuing stark ultimatums, calling on the African Union and international mediators to address what they see as a looming crisis.
Adding another layer of complexity is the Eritrean government’s near-total silence on the matter. Asmara has not publicly responded to Tigrayan accusations, nor has it clarified the status of its forces along the shared border. This ambiguity has fueled speculation among analysts, with some arguing that Eritrea’s strategic goal is to maintain leverage over Ethiopia’s fragile northern frontier. As the ink dries on fresh bilateral agreements with Uganda, the Ethiopian government finds itself balancing two competing imperatives: deepening regional cooperation and defusing an old, potentially explosive dispute. For now, the message from Addis Ababa is one of unity and forward-looking diplomacy. But in the background, the unresolved tensions with Eritrea continue to cast a long shadow over Ethiopia’s ambitious plans.
