For nearly five decades, the dispute over Western Sahara has remained one of Africa’s most intractable conflicts, a geopolitical puzzle that has defied solution. But now, the United Nations’ latest proposal—one that would see the territory effectively split between Morocco and the Polisario Front—has reignited tensions and triggered sharp reactions from all sides.
The plan, reportedly put forward by UN envoy Staffan de Mistura, aims to strike a compromise in the long-standing conflict that has pitted Rabat against the Algeria-backed Polisario movement since Spain withdrew from its former colony in 1975. Under this proposal, Morocco would maintain control over much of Western Sahara, while a portion of the region would be granted to the Polisario, which has been pushing for an independent Sahrawi state. This, de Mistura believes, could pave the way for a long-overdue resolution.
Morocco, which controls approximately 80% of the disputed region and has poured billions into infrastructure projects to solidify its grip, has predictably rejected any idea of ceding territory. Rabat has consistently pushed its own proposal: a broad autonomy plan under Moroccan sovereignty, which it claims is the only realistic path forward. “There is no room for division,” a senior Moroccan official was quoted as saying, emphasizing that any partition would undermine the kingdom’s territorial integrity.
On the other side, the Polisario Front, which declared the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR) in 1976 and has enjoyed diplomatic recognition from some states and the African Union, has also voiced strong reservations about the UN’s plan. For the separatist movement, anything short of a referendum on full independence would be a betrayal of the Sahrawi people’s right to self-determination. “We will not accept a solution that does not allow our people to freely choose their future,” a Polisario representative stated, making it clear that division was not the answer they were seeking.
The proposal has also drawn mixed reactions from regional and international players. Algeria, Polisario’s primary backer, has long supported a referendum on independence and has been locked in a bitter diplomatic standoff with Morocco over the issue. A divided Western Sahara could be seen as a compromise, but Algiers is unlikely to welcome a solution that cements Moroccan control over the majority of the territory. Meanwhile, Spain, the former colonial power, has cautiously aligned itself with Morocco’s autonomy plan in recent years, a shift that led to a significant diplomatic rift with Algeria. The European Union and the United States, both of whom maintain strategic interests in North Africa, have yet to issue firm stances on the latest UN proposal, though Washington has supported Morocco’s autonomy plan since 2020 under the Trump administration—a position the Biden administration has not reversed.
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Beyond the geopolitical wrangling, the people of Western Sahara remain caught in limbo. The refugee camps in Tindouf, Algeria, home to tens of thousands of Sahrawis for decades, continue to be a stark symbol of the unresolved crisis. Many young Sahrawis, frustrated by decades of waiting, have grown disillusioned with diplomatic efforts, with some advocating for a return to armed struggle. Sporadic clashes between Polisario fighters and Moroccan forces have taken place in recent years, particularly following the collapse of a decades-old ceasefire in 2020.
For Morocco, Western Sahara is more than a political issue—it is a matter of national identity. Rabat has sought to integrate the region economically and socially, investing in major infrastructure projects such as the new Dakhla port, roads, and renewable energy initiatives. The government insists that its development efforts demonstrate a commitment to the people of Western Sahara and prove that autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty is the best option.
For the Polisario Front and its supporters, however, these investments do little to change the underlying reality of occupation. Despite diplomatic setbacks, the movement continues to push its case at the United Nations, arguing that international law remains on its side. The UN, for its part, has been struggling for years to keep peace talks alive, with little progress made since the last serious negotiations in 2018.
De Mistura’s partition proposal, whether a serious attempt at breaking the deadlock or merely an idea floated for discussion, has already sparked a firestorm. The prospect of a divided Western Sahara raises fundamental questions: Would such a solution be enforceable? Could it truly satisfy either party? Or would it only deepen hostilities and create new fault lines in an already volatile region? While the UN may be searching for a middle ground, the battle over Western Sahara is about more than lines on a map. It is about history, identity, and the competing visions of two sides that have spent nearly half a century locked in a bitter struggle. And if the latest controversy is any indication, this conflict is far from over.
